The Bradford Hill Criteria Don't Hold Up

In 1965, the epidemiologist, Austin Bradford Hill, who helped link smoking to lung cancer, gave a speech where he presented his viewpoints/criteria on how we can arrive at causation from correlation. This lecture was a bit of a game changer at the time given that the tobacco industry was employing statisticians, medical doctors, and even popular science writers to push the idea that the relationship between smoking and lung cancer was merely a correlation, not a causal one. Read More

How Did We Figure Out Smoking Causes Lung Cancer?

Proving a cause and effect relationship isn’t easy. Causality is a complex subject, and there are thousands of texts on it, involving philosophical and mathematical arguments that are beyond my understanding. However, I do understand a bit of causality to discuss how we arrive at cause and effect relationships in the sciences. One of the first things often drilled into students in a research methods course is that correlation does not equal causation. Read More