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Page not found

Page not found.
Author
404
This page is less likely than most.

We failed to reject the null hypothesis that this page exists.
p = 1.000 · 95% CI [−∞, ∞] · n = 0
Home Blog All posts Report a broken link
Click the 404 to resample.
---
title: "Page not found"
page-layout: custom
sidebar: false
search: false
description: "Page not found."
author: []
---

```{=html}
<style>
  .nf { display: flex; flex-direction: column; align-items: center; justify-content: center;
        min-height: 70vh; padding: 3rem 1.25rem; text-align: center; }

  .nf-logo { display: block; margin-bottom: 2.5rem; border-bottom: none; }
  .nf-logo img { width: 132px; height: auto; display: block; }

  /* The numeral: monospace, matching the theme's code face. */
  .nf-code {
    font-family: "IBM Plex Mono", "JetBrains Mono", "Source Code Pro", Menlo, Consolas, monospace;
    font-size: clamp(4.5rem, 16vw, 8.5rem);
    font-weight: 500;
    line-height: 1;
    letter-spacing: -0.04em;
    color: #1a1a1a;
    margin-bottom: 1.5rem;
    cursor: pointer;
    user-select: none;
    display: inline-block;
    animation: nf-drift 5s ease-in-out infinite;
  }
  .nf-code:active { animation: none; transform: scale(0.97); }

  @keyframes nf-drift {
    0%, 100% { transform: translate(0, 0) rotate(0deg); }
    12%      { transform: translate(-2px, 1px) rotate(-0.4deg); }
    28%      { transform: translate(2px, -1px) rotate(0.4deg); }
    44%      { transform: translate(-1px, 2px) rotate(-0.2deg); }
    61%      { transform: translate(2px, 1px) rotate(0.3deg); }
    78%      { transform: translate(-2px, -1px) rotate(-0.3deg); }
  }
  @media (prefers-reduced-motion: reduce) { .nf-code { animation: none; } }

  .nf h1 {
    font-family: "Source Sans Pro", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, sans-serif;
    font-size: 1.5rem; font-weight: 600; line-height: 1.25;
    color: #1a1a1a; margin: 0 0 0.75rem;
  }

  /* Body copy inherits the theme's Source Serif Pro. */
  .nf-message {
    font-size: 1.0625rem; line-height: 1.65; color: #1a1a1a;
    max-width: 34rem; margin: 0 0 0.6rem; text-wrap: pretty; min-height: 3.4rem;
  }
  .nf-stat {
    font-family: "IBM Plex Mono", "JetBrains Mono", Menlo, Consolas, monospace;
    font-size: 0.8125rem; color: #555; margin: 0 0 2.25rem; letter-spacing: 0.01em;
  }

  .nf-nav { display: flex; gap: 1.75rem; justify-content: center; flex-wrap: wrap; }
  .nf-nav a {
    font-family: "Source Sans Pro", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, sans-serif;
    font-size: 0.9375rem; color: #3f8f9b; text-decoration: underline;
    text-underline-offset: 3px; text-decoration-thickness: 1px;
  }
  .nf-nav a:hover { color: #2e6d80; }

  .nf-hint {
    font-size: 0.75rem; color: #999; margin-top: 3rem; font-style: italic;
  }

  /* Dark mode — Quarto sets .quarto-dark on <body>. */
  body.quarto-dark .nf-code,
  body.quarto-dark .nf h1        { color: #e8e8e8; }
  body.quarto-dark .nf-message   { color: #d8d8d8; }
  body.quarto-dark .nf-stat      { color: #9a9a9a; }
  body.quarto-dark .nf-hint      { color: #777; }
</style>

<div class="nf">
  <a href="/" class="nf-logo"><img src="/images/HomeLogo.gif" alt="Less Likely"></a>

  <div class="nf-code" id="nf-code" title="Resample">404</div>

  <h1>This page is less likely than most.</h1>

  <p class="nf-message" id="nf-message">We failed to reject the null hypothesis that this page exists.</p>
  <p class="nf-stat" id="nf-stat">p = 1.000 &nbsp;·&nbsp; 95% CI [&minus;&infin;, &infin;] &nbsp;·&nbsp; n = 0</p>

  <div class="nf-nav">
    <a href="/">Home</a>
    <a href="/blog.html">Blog</a>
    <a href="/posts.html">All posts</a>
    <a href="/contact.html">Report a broken link</a>
  </div>

  <p class="nf-hint">Click the 404 to resample.</p>
</div>

<script>
(function () {
  var messages = [
    "We failed to reject the null hypothesis that this page exists.",
    "Absence of evidence is, on this occasion, evidence of absence.",
    "The effect of this page is indistinguishable from zero.",
    "This result did not replicate.",
    "The page is somewhere in the confidence interval. The interval is unbounded.",
    "Underpowered study; the page could not be detected.",
    "After correcting for multiple comparisons, nothing survived.",
    "The preregistration did not include this page.",
    "This URL has been retracted. The reasons are unclear.",
    "Our model predicted this page. Our model was wrong."
  ];

  var code = document.getElementById('nf-code');
  var msg  = document.getElementById('nf-message');
  var stat = document.getElementById('nf-stat');
  var i = 0;

  function rand(min, max, dp) { return (Math.random() * (max - min) + min).toFixed(dp); }

  function resample() {
    i = (i + 1) % messages.length;
    msg.textContent = messages[i];

    var lo = -rand(0.2, 4.0, 2);
    var hi = rand(0.2, 4.0, 2);
    stat.innerHTML = 'p = ' + rand(0.12, 0.99, 3) +
                     ' \u00A0·\u00A0 95% CI [' + lo + ', ' + hi + ']' +
                     ' \u00A0·\u00A0 n = ' + Math.floor(rand(0, 40, 0));

    // Nudge the numeral so the click feels registered.
    code.style.animation = 'none';
    void code.offsetWidth;
    code.style.animation = '';
  }

  code.addEventListener('click', resample);
  code.addEventListener('keydown', function (e) {
    if (e.key === 'Enter' || e.key === ' ') { e.preventDefault(); resample(); }
  });
  code.setAttribute('tabindex', '0');
  code.setAttribute('role', 'button');
  code.setAttribute('aria-label', 'Resample the error message');
})();
</script>
```
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This page is less likely than most.

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