Statistics

Articles on statistical science, inference, uncertainty, and research methods.
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Articles on statistical science, inference, uncertainty, and research methods.

Latest Statistics Articles

When Can We Say That Something Doesn’t Work?

When Can We Say That Something Doesn’t Work?

statistics

When are we allowed to conclude that an intervention doesn’t work? Is it when a study or several studies fail to find significant differences?

17 min
High Statistical Power Can Be Deceiving

High Statistical Power Can Be Deceiving

Most studies aim to achieve high statistical power and precision by increasing sample sizes. Many researchers will conclude that there is no effect if they get a nonsignificant result in a high-powered study. In this post, I discuss why this is incorrect.

11 min
Meta-Analysis: Choose Your Model Wisely

Meta-Analysis: Choose Your Model Wisely

Meta-analyses are incredibly common in the literature and they can be hard to understand. In this post, I explain why we conduct meta-analyses in the first place, the effects of different assumptions on the calculations, and traps to avoid when choosing a model.

9 min
 

The Octagon Is a One-Trial Experiment

statistics

A single MMA fight is not a probability. But repeat it ten times and the better fighter’s edge starts showing. That gap is exactly what frequentism was built for.

Jun 23, 2026
9 min
 

Multi-Language Code Examples

statistics
programming
tutorial

Examples of using Stata, Julia, and pseudocode in blog posts

Jan 6, 2026
5 min
Confidence, Posteriors, and the Bootstrap

Confidence, Posteriors, and the Bootstrap

statistics

This guide discusses the bootstrap resampling method and its close connection to the consonance distribution and how to use certain iterations of the bootstrap to construct a consonance distribution.

Jan 12, 2025
11 min
Computing Confidence Interval Functions with cifunction

Computing Confidence Interval Functions with cifunction

statistics
stata
confidence intervals
data visualization
statistical methods

Learn how to compute and visualize confidence interval functions (confidence curves, p-value functions) using the cifunction Stata package. Includes practical examples and implementation guide.

Mar 23, 2024
10 min
Your Models Are Neither Useful Nor Approximate

Your Models Are Neither Useful Nor Approximate

statistics

A discussion about models and the assumptions that underlie them.

Jan 1, 2024
11 min
Using Stata: Producing Consonance Functions

Using Stata: Producing Consonance Functions

statistics

A simple guide on how to produce consonance functions in Stata.

Jan 1, 2024
16 min
Simulation of a Two-Group Parallel-Arm RCT with Interim Analyses

Simulation of a Two-Group Parallel-Arm RCT with Interim Analyses

statistics

A simulation of a two-group parallel-arm randomized trial with interim analysis using the rpact package.

Feb 1, 2021
13 min
Tables, Graphs, and Computations from Rafi & Greenland (2020)

Tables, Graphs, and Computations from Rafi & Greenland (2020)

This post goes through the R code and logic that was used to construct the figures and concepts in Rafi & Greenland (2020) BMC MRM.

Dec 12, 2020
38 min
What Makes a Sensitivity Analysis?

What Makes a Sensitivity Analysis?

statistics

Sensitivity analyses are an important part of statistical analyses, however, there are major misconceptions about what they do and what qualifies as such an analysis.

Dec 12, 2020
94 min
 

Medicine Is Being Treated with Snake-Oil Statistics

statistics
Suggested Running Head: Snake Oil Statistics
Nov 11, 2020
16 min
Quality Control in Statistical Analyses

Quality Control in Statistical Analyses

statistics

Experienced statisticians and data analysts are familiar with stories where a coding error has led to an entire conclusion changing, even leading to a retraction. It’s the sort of stuff that keeps people up at night.

Jun 13, 2020
43 min
Book Review: Regression and Other Stories by Gelman, Hill, and Vehtari

Book Review: Regression and Other Stories by Gelman, Hill, and Vehtari

An early look at Gelman et als new book, Regression and Other Stories, which is an update to their seminal 2006 book, Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel Hierarchical Models.

Jun 11, 2019
3 min
Book Review: Fisher, Neyman, and the Creation of Classical Statistics

Book Review: Fisher, Neyman, and the Creation of Classical Statistics

A review of Erich Lehmann’s last book, Fisher, Neyman, and the Creation of Classical Statistics.

Dec 30, 2018
25 min
GAMS

GAMS

statistics

Some sample scripts

Nov 11, 2018
8 min
P-values Are Tough And S-values Can Help

P-values Are Tough And S-values Can Help

statistics

An extensive discussion about what P-values are, their properties, common interpretations, misinterpretations, and how a measure called an S-value may better help us interpret them.

Nov 11, 2018
30 min
We May Not Understand Control Groups

We May Not Understand Control Groups

Discussions praising the efficiency of randomized trials are widespread, however, few of these discussions take a close look at some of the common assumptions that individuals hold regarding randomized trials. And unfortunately, these common assumptions may be based on outdated evidence and simplistic ideas.

Oct 28, 2018
11 min
Misplaced Confidence in Observed Power

Misplaced Confidence in Observed Power

statistics

Another misinterpretation of what statistical power is and how trial results should be interpreted.

Sep 30, 2018
3 min
Misplaced Confidence in Observed Power

Misplaced Confidence in Observed Power

Another misinterpretation of what statistical power is and how trial results should be reported in a popular journal.

Sep 30, 2018
2 min
The Bradford Hill Criteria Don’t Hold Up

The Bradford Hill Criteria Don’t Hold Up

The Bradford Hill viewpoints are commonly used as a checklist to argue for causality when randomized trials aren’t possible. However, the originator of these viewpoints never intended for them to be used this way. In this post, I examine the shortcomings of using these viewpoints as a checklist in the real world.

Sep 6, 2018
14 min
Misuse of Standard Error in Clinical Trials

Misuse of Standard Error in Clinical Trials

statistics

Analytic statistics are commonly used to make inferences from the data. However, they are often misused because of misconceptions about what they do. In this post, I discuss how standard error is commonly misused in clinical trials.

Aug 7, 2018
5 min
Vitamin E, Mortality, and the Bayesian Gloss

Vitamin E, Mortality, and the Bayesian Gloss

A look at a time when Bayesian data analysis went off the rails.

Jun 20, 2018
8 min
Problems with the Number Needed to Treat

Problems with the Number Needed to Treat

The number needed to treat is a popular statistic used in medicine, but it has several problems associated with the way it is used and in this blog post, I discuss some of those problems and possible solutions.

May 27, 2018
9 min
Calculating Observed Power Is Just Transforming Noise

Calculating Observed Power Is Just Transforming Noise

A discussion of events that transpired in the past year, where a group of surgical researchers promoted calculating post-hoc power using the observed effect size, despite warnings from several statisticians.

May 4, 2018
17 min
Myth: Covariates Need to Be Balanced in RCTs

Myth: Covariates Need to Be Balanced in RCTs

Many people believe that the purpose of randomization is to perfectly balance out both known and unknown covariates in order to reach causal inferences, however, this is simply not true and is a misunderstanding of the process of randomization.

Apr 10, 2018
4 min
Stan: Bayesian Modeling Examples

Stan: Bayesian Modeling Examples

statistics

Sample scripts and examples for Bayesian modeling using Stan.

Jan 1, 2018
17 min
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